Will Financial Modeling in Excel Be Dead Soon?

What if the debate over AI's ability to build a financial model is completely missing the point?

8 min read

Questioning the Craft

I’ve spent over a decade in financial modeling. I love the craft. So when the world started buzzing about AI, the immediate question was, "Can AI do my job?" And the answer, for now, is no.

AI is still remarkably bad at building a complex, nuanced financial model from scratch. So my job is safe, right? Maybe not. I started asking a more fundamental question, one that gets lost in the noise of AI-powered features and functions: why do we even build these models in the first place?

Think about it. Why does a CFO need an NPV and IRR? To decide between two projects. Why does a founder need a valuation? To know what a piece of their business is worth. Why does an investor project future cash flows? To underwrite a deal.

If AI can make the decision, why do we need build the model?

From Model Builder to Decision Architect

So, what is the conclusion? The strategic value in finance is no longer in the artifact—the spreadsheet—but in the outcome: the quality and speed of the decision.

The question you should be asking is not whether to learn a new Excel shortcut, but whether your career is architected around a workflow that is being dismantled. The future does not belong to the model builder, chained to the cells and formulas of a spreadsheet. It belongs to the decision architect—the strategist who can design, interpret, and leverage autonomous systems to drive the enterprise forward. The only remaining question is: will you make the transition?

Root-Cause Analysis · Weekly Brief
Before all the Excel lovers start shouting, what if the debate over AI's ability to build a financial model is completely missing the point?

The Unbundling of the Model Builder

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Questioning the Craft

I’ve spent over a decade in financial modeling. I love the craft. So when the world started buzzing about AI, the immediate question was, "Can AI do my job?" And the answer, for now, is no.

The Unbundling of the Model Builder

AI is still remarkably bad at building a complex, nuanced financial model from scratch. So my job is safe, right? Maybe not. I started asking a more fundamental question, one that gets lost in the noise of AI-powered features and functions: why do we even build these models in the first place?

Think about it. Why does a CFO need an NPV and IRR? To decide between two projects. Why does a founder need a valuation? To know what a piece of their business is worth. Why does an investor project future cash flows? To underwrite a deal.

If AI can make the decision, why do we need build the model?

DATAThe Unbundling of the Model Builder

The Unbundling of the Model Builder

So how does a role like the model builder become obsolete? It's not a single event, but a quiet, systematic dismantling, piece by piece.

Wave 1: Automating the Drudgery

First, software came for the drudgery. With finance teams spending a staggering 64% of their time just collecting and cleaning data, wasn't it obvious where to start? A wave of tools emerged to automate that grunt work, and suddenly, a huge chunk of the analyst's job was handled by a machine.

Wave 2: Replacing the Environment

That's where the second wave hit: replacing the environment. Was the real problem the tedious work, or was it the isolated, static nature of the spreadsheet itself? Cloud platforms like Anaplan and Pigment argued for the latter, moving the entire planning process into a dynamic, collaborative space that made the traditional .xlsx file feel like a relic.

But what if that’s the wrong question?

Right now the goal is: helping humans work more efficiently? They address the how. What if the real revolution isn’t about building a better workflow for humans, but about removing the human from the workflow altogether? This is the pivot that no one is paying enough attention to.

DATAThe Unbundling of the Model Builder

Three-Stage to Automated Decisions

How does a complex human process like financial decision-making actually get automated? It happens in three distinct technological stages, a progression that moves beyond the old question of "What if?" to the far more powerful domain of "What's best?"

01. Stage 1: Predictive AI

The foundation of any model is its assumptions about the future, a human-led process notoriously vulnerable to biases. What if we could remove that flaw? The first stage of automation does just that with machine learning. Platforms like Planful and Workday already use predictive AI to analyze vast historical datasets, generating more accurate, unbiased forecasts than any human could.

02. Stage 2: Generative AI

An accurate forecast is useless if decision-makers can't understand it. The second stage attacks this communication layer. How do you translate complex data into a clear story? Generative AI is now automating this. Tools like Datarails' "FP&A Genius" can instantly generate natural language summaries and board-ready commentary from raw numbers, automating the analyst's role as a storyteller.

03. Stage 3: Agentic AI

This is the final, most profound stage. What if the system could run itself? Agentic AI platforms from companies like Pigment and Anaplan are creating systems of autonomous agents that perceive, reason, and act. Imagine an "Analyst" agent detecting a sales variance. It triggers a "Planner" agent to investigate, which then activates a "Modeler" agent to run simulations and propose a new budget. The human is no longer in the loop; they are overseeing it. Is this not the endgame?

DATAThe Unbundling of the Model Builder

The "So What": Human & Capital

What does this relentless march of automation mean for the people whose jobs are being dismantled? And where is the smart money placing its bets in this new landscape?

The Rise of the "Hybrid" Professional

What happens to the traditional finance professional, valued for meticulous data wrangling, when those tasks are automated? They face obsolescence. The new, valuable professional is a "hybrid"—a strategist with data storytelling skills and technical fluency in Python, SQL, and Power BI. Their job isn’t to build the model, but to architect the systems that do. How do we know this is happening? Elite universities like MIT Sloan and Wharton have already re-engineered their finance degrees into STEM-designated, Python-heavy programs. They aren't training the next generation of Excel jockeys anymore.

The Market's Verdict: Capital is the Leading Indicator

Venture capital isn't just funding better software; it's funding the obsolescence of an entire workflow. The market has already placed its bet. In April 2024, Pigment raised a $145 million Series D at a $1 billion valuation. Is this an isolated event? Not at all. PitchBook data reveals a staggering 242% "AI premium" for early-stage AI-enabled fintech companies. Capital follows the future, and it is flowing decisively towards platforms that automate, rather than merely assist.

The Unbundling of the Model Builder

From Model Builder to Decision Architect

So, what is the conclusion? The strategic value in finance is no longer in the artifact—the spreadsheet—but in the outcome: the quality and speed of the decision.

The question you should be asking is not whether to learn a new Excel shortcut, but whether your career is architected around a workflow that is being dismantled. The future does not belong to the model builder, chained to the cells and formulas of a spreadsheet. It belongs to the decision architect—the strategist who can design, interpret, and leverage autonomous systems to drive the enterprise forward. The only remaining question is: will you make the transition?

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